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The deaths of Packer and Perry in the past month changed the odds for the remaining apostles to become president of the church — next or someday. But for those immediately after him, particularly Elder Nelson, the change is really big. Ziff's chart is based on seniority — determined by the date a person was ordained to apostleship — and life expectancy.

Ziff used an actuarial mortality table to determine life expectancy, which essentially gives everybody the same probability of living depending on their age.

Using those numbers, Ziff simulated 1, scenarios to see how many times each apostle would become president of the church. That's how he got the percentages.


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But casting Nelson as the next president may be a little hasty since the simulations don't take into account other factors, he wrote, like "the fact that both [Oaks and Nelson] appear to be healthier than President Monson. According to a recent statement from the LDS church, Monson, 87, is "feeling the effects of his age.

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Other things that aren't factored in are family genes and personal medical history. Ziff also used an American mortality table, so it technically doesn't apply to Dieter F. Uchtdorf, who is German and the only non-American in the quorum of the 15 apostles.

The probability of Jeffrey R. Holland becoming the next president is 8 percent, higher than his seniors in the Quorum, Richard G. Scott and Robert D. Hales, whose probabilities are 4 and 5 percent, respectively. Holland's chances of ever becoming president are 53 percent. David A. Bednar is the youngest apostle at age He has a 67 percent likelihood of becoming president at some point in the future, according to Ziff. Rather than being built on probability, however, Mormons view the process of choosing the faith's top leader as a divine one, "devoid of electioneering whether behind the scenes or in public," according to mormonnewsroom.

Even so, the conversation is taking place in many, if not most, Mormon homes.

Forecasting Medium’s statistics using Facebook’s Prophet Library

Legal Notices Obituaries Jobs. Homer Durham, 3 vols. Guided by the divine inspiration he receives, the President selects his counselors and then, with the other Apostles, sets them apart. If the second-longest serving Apostle is called into the First Presidency, the Apostle next in seniority is appointed as Acting President of the Twelve. It can be hard to say goodbye to someone who has been the prophet for a big part of your life.

But we can be reassured that each prophet is called of God. President Nelson has been called by God to be the man for this hour on the earth, and he will act and speak as God would have him act and speak.

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We are His servants. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints will continue to go forward, to bless every nation, kindred, tongue, and people. I know Them, love Them, and pledge to serve Them—and you—with every remaining breath of my life. Nelson , Prophet , Church Leader.

Who’s the Next Mormon President?

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